Heat Exchanger Tube----Seamless pipe industry is still under downward pressure
2013 , China's seamless pipe industry due to overcapacity, falling demand , a long downward trend in the annual downstream market for up to 7 months old , which is the main shrinking downstream demand are directly related . 2014 supply of steel industry will further increase demand , export growth will also slow down , so the full year 2014 will highlight the downward pressure on the industry .
From 2013 all varieties of steel prices situation, the overall price of steel and hot rolled coil, rebar prices fluctuate more frequently, but seamless pipe price range narrowest , most of the time in a weak downward trend , rising short duration ; this reflects the seamless industry downturn in 2013 from the side .
Seamless production and export growth are slowing
Currently , the 2008 financial crisis is seamless industry from the gloom and doom of the turning point. After 2008, investment in the sector decreased, but in 2009 the country introduced stimulus delayed the seamless industry overcapacity situation , making the industry got some breathing space . However, the outbreak of the debt crisis in Europe and the global economy tumbled , the second half of 2010 as policy stimulus waning , China's seamless pipe industry has entered a downward phase , prices have gradually declined.
From 2012 , the number of enterprises out of the market of private seamless increase in production capacity for the first time in 2013 to less than the elimination of production capacity, seamless pipe industry officially entered the elimination phase. However, because the base is already at a high capacity , seamless pipe production increased in 2013 is still in growth is expected in 2013 as a whole, seamless yield of about 31.8 million tons (see Figure 1 ) .
On the export side , the sluggish global economy on China's seamless pipe exports caused some impact . Among them, the decline in Iran , Venezuela, Algeria, Egypt and other countries export volume is more significant , is expected in 2013 as a whole, the export volume of 5 million tons of seamless pipes to 510 million tons, down 1.31% ~ 3.24% .
At present , China's seamless pipe exports mainly oil -based ( about 80% to 85% ) , and to maintain growth, while exports of other varieties of boiler tubes and then show a downward trend. 2014 , slowing boiler tubes and other varieties of export growth is inevitable, but the possibility of a sharp decline in the small, demand for oil well pipes are not big fluctuations . 2014 , China's seamless pipe exports increased slightly more likely, the main export still concentrated in East Asia, Southeast Asia , Middle East, North Africa and some South American countries and regions. However , corporate profits exports will not be satisfactory.
Cost is the main cause of new capacity has been restrained price changes
At present, China seamless pipe industry is overcapacity stage. In the context of the global economic slowdown , seamless major downstream industries has been in a state of full competition , so the cost is about to become the main cause of seamless pipe market changes .
And in raw material costs , the cost impact on the seamless tube is the most direct price , iron ore as an indirect cost for seamless important market trend also has directivity. Through the iron ore prices and billet prices are analyzed , it can be seen , the iron ore price changes tend to precede the blank and seamless pipe prices. 2014 , under the trade surplus will continue our seamless pipe case , the cost is still the main basis to determine the price trend (see Figure 2 ) .
In early 2013 , a new plan to increase production of seamless pipe line capacity 1,061,000 tons , but only 111,000 tons production, the remaining projects shelved or abandoned because of funding problems . In recent years, the development of seamless pipe from the investment industry , more and more enterprises begin to extend the chain and species diversification in order to enhance their competitiveness and impact resistance.
Some of them are shell companies to extend in both directions , one is to extend steel , wire rod production capacity enhancement , such as Tianjin Steel Group , southern Hebei Steel Co., Ltd., a relatively large number of such cases ; another one is seamless pipe production line continues to grow , such as Heilongjiang Jianlong , Anyang Steel Group Co., Ltd. , Henan Feng Bao steel , Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Linyi Jiang Xin , this situation with the seamless tube industry boom continued to decline gradually reduced.
Seamless part of the enterprise in order to reduce the pressure of market competition , will increase the variety and enterprises to improve product quality as the direction of development, such as the Steel Tube Co., Ltd. Jiangsu often so deep and stronger in terms of boiler tubes , Henan and Heilongjiang Jianlong Fengbao have new heat treatment line program to enrich corporate seamless varieties.
For part of the capital chain tension, low-end seamless pipe products companies in the coming year to 2 years there will be more to shut down . According to incomplete statistics , by the end of 2013 more than 2 years of discontinued or obsolete seamless business productivity , or will reach 2.5 million tons .
Long process , processing enterprises will occupy development advantages
Prior to the economic development of our country depends mainly on exports, consumption and investment. However , the recent slowdown in export growth is an indisputable fact ; while severely affected small and medium private enterprises in the financial crisis , many companies were forced to shut down , affecting the consumption side , consumption in other areas , there have been different decreased levels ; investments, 2014 will be the peak of the local government solvency , the larger local pressure to reduce investment will be a high probability event .
2014 , China's economic growth will be slower compared with 2013 , which will bring some influence demand for steel , the steel industry will no doubt be affected. Expects 2014 companies operating pressure is more prominent than in 2013 .
In the long run , China's seamless pipe demand will continue to improve our infrastructure with the construction of a downward trend, which will have seamless business requirements are also rising. Long process, varieties, specifications , features prominent companies will win in the future competition . From the development of the steel industry abroad , the seamless merger and reorganization of enterprises will be a big trend, but more of a low-end equipment , so more companies will face the dilemma of shutting down exit . And out of the country a global marketing system , is the key to business survival in the future seamless integration . Future , the advantages of a long process of China's seamless pipe industry enterprises will be more prominent, and the product has the characteristics of strong technical strength seamless and processing enterprises can win the competition.
Key Words: Seamless Pipe, Heat exchanger tube